:Product: 0620RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jun 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(21 Jun, 22 Jun, 23 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 625 km/s at 20/1532Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 19/2128Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
20/0411Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 762 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (21 Jun, 22 Jun)
and quiet to active levels on day three (23 Jun). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (21 Jun, 22
Jun, 23 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Jun 130
Predicted   21 Jun-23 Jun 130/130/130
90 Day Mean        20 Jun 147

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun  011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun  011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun  007/010-007/010-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/30
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    25/25/40