:Product: 0621RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jun 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(22 Jun, 23 Jun, 24 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 600 km/s at 21/0732Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 21/1657Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
21/1525Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1150 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Jun) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (23 Jun, 24 Jun). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (22 Jun,
23 Jun, 24 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Jun 120
Predicted   22 Jun-24 Jun 120/115/115
90 Day Mean        21 Jun 147

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun  008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jun  010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun  007/010-010/012-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun-24 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/30/30
Minor Storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    25/40/40