:Product: 0622RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jun 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 173 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (23 Jun, 24 Jun, 25 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 626 km/s at 22/0059Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 21/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
22/1637Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 686 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (23 Jun, 24 Jun) and
active to minor storm levels on day three (25 Jun). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (23 Jun,
24 Jun, 25 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Jun 125
Predicted   23 Jun-25 Jun 125/120/125
90 Day Mean        22 Jun 146

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jun  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun  010/012-010/012-024/035

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun-25 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/35
Minor Storm           10/10/25
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/40/65