:Product: 0625RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jun 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Jun, 27 Jun,
28 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 505 km/s at 25/2059Z. Total IMF reached 16
nT at 25/2012Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
25/2027Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1260 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (26 Jun), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (27 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day
three (28 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
Class M    30/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Jun 117
Predicted   26 Jun-28 Jun 120/125/130
90 Day Mean        25 Jun 145

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun  009/ 012
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun  023/032-017/020-011/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun-28 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor Storm           30/20/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    65/55/40