:Product: 0626RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jun 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on day one (27 Jun) and expected to be low
with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (28 Jun, 29 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 849 km/s at 26/0957Z. Total IMF
reached 16 nT at 25/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 25/2223Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 279 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (27 Jun), quiet to
active levels on day two (28 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (29 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
Class M    25/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Jun 117
Predicted   27 Jun-29 Jun 125/130/135
90 Day Mean        26 Jun 145

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun  016/ NA
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jun  017/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun  017/020-011/014-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun-29 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/20
Minor Storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    55/40/25