:Product: 0627RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jun 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2025

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Jun, 29 Jun,
30 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 811 km/s at 27/0042Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 26/2220Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 26/2112Z.  Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2467 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Jun), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (29 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (30 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Jun 118
Predicted   28 Jun-30 Jun 120/120/115
90 Day Mean        27 Jun 144

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun  024/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jun  021/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun  013/015-007/008-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun-30 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/10
Minor Storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/25/10